* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 07/06/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 48 53 57 58 58 59 60 59 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 48 53 57 58 58 59 60 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 40 48 55 57 55 50 46 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 8 9 2 7 13 28 31 37 35 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 5 4 10 10 6 6 1 -2 -9 -7 SHEAR DIR 50 42 43 50 43 58 264 252 280 275 292 289 302 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 138 137 136 133 132 133 136 137 136 129 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 146 147 147 146 142 140 139 141 137 131 120 115 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -54.3 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 63 59 61 58 54 51 49 47 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 70 67 59 48 37 21 4 -28 -55 -100 -104 -114 200 MB DIV -10 -13 -4 0 -10 -14 -13 5 0 7 -1 28 15 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -5 -5 -8 -11 -4 -2 18 25 32 14 9 LAND (KM) 1445 1376 1328 1321 1336 1114 945 887 756 686 380 184 156 LAT (DEG N) 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.8 9.2 10.3 11.8 13.3 15.0 16.7 18.2 19.3 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 32.6 34.2 35.8 37.6 39.4 43.3 47.4 51.5 55.5 59.1 62.1 64.3 65.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 18 19 21 21 21 20 18 14 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 9 17 20 8 21 16 13 22 22 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 5. 1. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 23. 28. 32. 33. 33. 34. 35. 34. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 07/06/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 07/06/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)