* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 07/06/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 50 58 62 64 63 63 63 62 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 50 58 62 64 63 63 63 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 34 37 45 55 64 69 66 61 55 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 11 8 3 3 5 21 26 35 35 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 1 5 8 12 12 6 3 0 -6 -8 SHEAR DIR 61 51 42 41 49 95 259 256 264 277 281 292 298 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 138 136 137 135 131 131 134 134 136 132 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 149 146 145 146 144 140 138 139 137 134 125 118 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.8 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.9 -54.6 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 7 7 7 9 10 11 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 69 66 65 65 64 59 60 55 53 47 47 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 71 69 66 56 36 27 8 -13 -41 -86 -115 -109 200 MB DIV 6 -10 -11 -4 0 -9 -17 4 9 4 8 12 12 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -7 -5 -4 -8 -6 -6 6 17 32 17 9 LAND (KM) 1525 1476 1402 1353 1328 1302 1043 917 920 714 638 359 206 LAT (DEG N) 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.7 9.7 10.9 12.4 13.9 15.6 17.1 18.6 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 30.7 32.3 33.8 35.5 37.1 40.8 44.8 48.8 52.8 56.6 59.8 62.3 64.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 17 18 20 21 21 21 19 16 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 13 9 13 13 10 41 15 16 23 19 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 0. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 33. 37. 39. 38. 38. 38. 37. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 07/06/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 07/06/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)