* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952012 09/25/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 37 40 41 43 45 48 51 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 37 40 41 43 45 48 51 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 31 32 32 32 33 35 37 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 16 21 23 27 30 38 25 28 23 35 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -2 -2 -2 2 1 0 1 -1 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 352 244 242 253 259 262 254 254 248 289 272 275 238 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 158 158 155 153 151 150 148 146 143 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 139 139 137 136 133 130 128 126 125 125 124 120 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.5 -55.1 -55.4 -55.2 -55.7 -55.6 -55.4 -55.6 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 48 48 49 49 49 50 54 57 61 59 66 70 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -45 -52 -58 -46 -41 -26 -19 -1 -1 22 45 87 200 MB DIV -11 10 -3 -2 29 9 39 16 41 -3 49 45 63 700-850 TADV 0 2 -1 -6 -2 -6 -5 -5 0 0 4 9 -2 LAND (KM) 491 511 532 547 548 540 556 471 396 359 397 459 315 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.4 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.5 26.0 26.4 26.9 27.5 28.7 30.4 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 70.5 71.1 71.6 72.1 72.6 73.6 74.6 75.4 76.1 76.5 76.5 75.6 74.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 5 8 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 64 74 77 74 65 50 51 54 69 74 59 49 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. -1. -6. -10. -12. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 15. 16. 18. 20. 23. 26. 28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952012 INVEST 09/25/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952012 INVEST 09/25/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)