* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952012 09/25/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 48 52 52 55 59 63 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 48 52 52 55 59 63 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 38 39 40 40 42 45 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 7 4 12 18 24 28 35 30 29 20 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -8 -2 -2 -2 1 1 0 -1 0 2 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 24 43 234 239 256 254 261 249 261 268 296 266 243 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 161 159 157 157 154 152 150 149 145 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 143 143 141 137 136 132 127 127 128 128 123 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -55.3 -54.8 -55.2 -55.0 -55.4 -55.6 -55.5 -55.4 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 700-500 MB RH 48 48 48 49 47 51 52 57 58 59 62 69 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -71 -52 -45 -55 -62 -38 -46 -11 -12 9 7 28 56 200 MB DIV -21 -8 6 -3 11 30 36 27 16 9 38 49 91 700-850 TADV -3 0 4 -1 -4 0 -4 -6 -2 -4 2 9 5 LAND (KM) 364 384 411 436 439 438 444 399 334 327 373 559 528 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.8 24.1 24.7 25.2 25.8 26.3 26.9 27.7 29.1 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 70.0 70.7 71.4 72.1 72.8 74.1 75.3 76.2 76.8 76.8 76.4 74.9 72.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 4 7 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 83 78 80 83 77 73 84 78 79 77 74 43 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 782 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 27. 27. 30. 34. 38. 39. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952012 INVEST 09/25/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 80.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952012 INVEST 09/25/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED