* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952012 08/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 26 31 38 45 51 57 62 67 69 V (KT) LAND 20 20 23 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 35 40 35 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 23 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 35 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 15 18 12 8 17 8 7 7 3 3 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 2 -2 -2 0 0 2 3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 299 319 344 3 332 28 51 17 12 320 21 342 92 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.3 30.5 30.8 31.4 31.6 30.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 163 165 169 170 170 169 169 169 170 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 141 145 148 151 156 158 162 169 169 160 123 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 8 10 13 10 15 12 13 9 10 6 7 700-500 MB RH 57 60 60 60 61 60 60 57 56 54 53 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 6 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 18 25 9 0 4 -11 5 13 30 29 11 10 200 MB DIV 12 6 -12 -4 -7 -14 3 -5 8 0 5 -12 10 700-850 TADV 4 -1 -7 1 3 -3 -1 0 1 1 3 1 3 LAND (KM) 30 -40 -112 -193 -275 -385 -245 -148 -66 -7 70 73 -30 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.8 24.0 24.2 24.5 24.7 24.8 25.0 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 97.5 98.2 98.9 99.7 100.5 102.2 103.9 105.4 106.8 107.8 108.8 110.0 111.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 48 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 18. 25. 31. 37. 42. 47. 49. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952012 INVEST 08/22/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952012 INVEST 08/22/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)