* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952012 08/21/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 27 32 37 42 50 56 63 66 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 30 38 41 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 36 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 11 20 19 10 15 8 12 8 6 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 3 3 2 1 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 343 352 319 339 6 2 25 53 51 54 71 93 157 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.8 31.2 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 156 158 160 164 168 170 170 169 169 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 135 138 140 145 150 153 154 157 161 169 162 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 12 9 8 12 9 14 11 14 10 11 6 700-500 MB RH 56 56 58 61 62 59 58 58 61 60 58 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 4 4 5 3 4 3 3 4 3 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 9 10 4 28 27 14 20 -5 10 14 25 27 24 200 MB DIV -47 -21 16 8 -18 -6 -10 -2 -9 11 -9 20 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -6 -6 -1 -5 -4 -2 0 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 61 15 -30 -86 -142 -275 -400 -261 -156 -74 0 59 85 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 23.9 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.8 23.7 23.7 23.8 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 97.2 97.7 98.1 98.7 99.2 100.5 102.0 103.5 104.9 106.2 107.3 108.3 109.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 33 19 44 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 22. 30. 36. 43. 46. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952012 INVEST 08/21/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952012 INVEST 08/21/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)