* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952012 08/21/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 29 33 38 47 55 61 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 26 27 27 27 27 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 11 11 13 19 16 14 14 10 10 5 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 1 1 5 5 4 1 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 308 327 319 318 336 7 4 38 30 56 54 68 57 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 161 157 157 156 160 164 168 169 169 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 138 134 135 136 141 145 148 149 150 150 152 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 10 12 10 9 9 11 12 13 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 50 52 56 58 58 59 57 58 61 60 62 61 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 11 10 5 8 11 10 17 23 12 32 23 51 200 MB DIV -13 -46 -20 -1 -6 -6 -6 -12 0 -5 6 -5 22 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 0 -6 1 -7 -2 -7 -3 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 165 137 108 75 40 -61 -183 -316 -378 -260 -158 -74 0 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.2 23.9 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 96.1 96.4 96.7 97.1 97.4 98.4 99.6 100.9 102.2 103.4 104.5 105.5 106.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 55 50 43 33 23 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 18. 27. 35. 41. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952012 INVEST 08/21/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952012 INVEST 08/21/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)