* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952012 08/21/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 25 30 32 36 41 44 51 56 60 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 31 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 23 26 26 27 27 27 27 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 15 10 7 14 20 11 17 9 16 13 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 5 2 -1 2 3 1 0 -2 -4 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 286 312 347 322 305 350 12 19 37 31 34 32 44 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 160 159 157 158 160 164 168 170 169 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 137 136 136 138 140 145 148 152 150 153 153 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 9 10 12 7 12 9 14 12 14 11 12 700-500 MB RH 54 52 55 57 57 63 60 60 60 60 60 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 5 5 4 5 3 3 3 2 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 17 4 5 3 0 9 2 6 4 8 17 30 28 200 MB DIV 30 -15 -43 -23 -6 -8 -21 -16 9 -19 0 -6 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 1 -2 0 -6 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 152 132 112 76 40 -61 -173 -316 -381 -247 -156 -59 22 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.0 23.9 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.8 23.6 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.5 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 96.3 96.5 96.7 97.1 97.4 98.4 99.5 100.9 102.2 103.6 104.7 105.9 107.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 55 52 49 39 27 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -2. -3. -4. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 12. 16. 21. 24. 31. 36. 40. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952012 INVEST 08/21/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952012 INVEST 08/21/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)