* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952012 08/20/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 28 31 37 42 48 52 57 63 67 71 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 28 31 28 27 27 27 27 32 37 40 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 24 26 26 27 27 31 37 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 6 14 13 9 15 12 13 12 13 13 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 1 5 3 2 3 1 0 0 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 27 298 307 351 345 318 20 29 55 63 73 89 83 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.7 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 160 161 161 162 164 167 169 170 170 162 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 136 138 139 140 143 147 151 153 154 154 145 135 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 11 9 11 10 10 11 11 12 12 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 56 53 56 56 62 63 64 61 61 61 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 15 14 8 12 20 17 30 10 25 14 32 2 200 MB DIV 22 28 6 -39 -15 13 -3 -11 -5 -2 -13 11 -14 700-850 TADV -1 2 0 0 2 -2 3 -4 -1 -4 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 132 122 112 76 40 -61 -187 -349 -243 -98 66 187 156 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.0 22.8 22.5 22.3 22.2 22.1 22.0 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 96.5 96.6 96.7 97.1 97.4 98.4 99.7 101.3 103.1 104.7 106.3 107.7 108.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 60 60 59 54 45 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 17. 22. 28. 32. 37. 43. 47. 51. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952012 INVEST 08/20/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952012 INVEST 08/20/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)