* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952012 08/20/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 36 40 43 45 49 55 61 65 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 31 35 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 30 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 9 10 17 13 9 19 17 19 13 15 13 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 -1 0 3 2 2 2 -1 -1 -3 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 4 7 296 318 354 307 358 33 38 62 61 72 66 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 158 159 159 161 164 168 170 170 169 169 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 136 137 138 141 145 150 152 155 154 153 154 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 13 14 11 8 13 7 12 10 14 12 13 9 700-500 MB RH 65 61 59 57 58 61 61 60 60 59 59 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 8 14 4 9 8 10 18 10 17 1 13 18 23 200 MB DIV 14 21 23 5 -35 0 -8 -16 -18 -6 -7 -1 -14 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 2 -2 -1 -5 -3 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 61 51 40 5 -30 -122 -245 -376 -287 -151 -59 7 75 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.5 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 97.2 97.3 97.4 97.8 98.1 99.0 100.2 101.5 103.0 104.5 105.8 106.8 107.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 52 47 41 22 47 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 29. 35. 41. 45. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952012 INVEST 08/20/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952012 INVEST 08/20/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)