* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952012 08/20/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 28 32 35 38 42 46 52 54 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 32 38 40 V (KT) LGE mod 20 22 23 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 32 36 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 11 12 18 11 17 19 16 20 18 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 -1 0 1 -2 2 -1 -3 -2 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 360 2 8 307 329 354 344 29 42 60 74 74 105 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 158 159 159 162 166 170 170 170 170 170 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 136 135 136 138 142 148 152 156 157 155 154 136 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 12 14 11 11 9 10 11 12 10 10 7 700-500 MB RH 71 67 66 64 60 64 65 64 61 58 60 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 4 3 3 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 5 11 4 9 12 21 12 18 -1 25 3 19 200 MB DIV 32 15 19 26 1 -9 11 -13 -9 -6 6 -6 5 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 1 -1 0 -7 -2 -4 -1 0 0 4 LAND (KM) -10 -20 -30 -61 -92 -194 -316 -344 -186 -52 52 84 4 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.2 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.3 23.2 23.1 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.5 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 97.9 98.0 98.1 98.4 98.7 99.7 100.9 102.4 104.0 105.7 107.2 108.6 109.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 50 47 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 22. 26. 32. 34. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952012 INVEST 08/20/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952012 INVEST 08/20/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)