* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952012 08/19/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 26 31 37 40 45 50 54 59 60 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 33 35 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 33 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 17 8 17 18 13 15 8 14 13 15 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 3 2 2 1 0 0 -1 0 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 341 7 353 346 350 304 1 330 16 53 52 61 63 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 160 158 161 163 166 168 168 169 167 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 141 138 135 139 143 148 150 152 154 153 142 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 12 13 11 10 13 9 12 8 12 9 12 7 700-500 MB RH 76 75 72 71 68 68 68 64 67 68 69 66 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 30 29 23 15 12 16 23 29 20 28 17 15 200 MB DIV 41 40 60 50 15 11 -1 -1 -6 -10 -3 9 0 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 4 0 1 0 -3 -1 -1 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) -38 -35 -45 -61 -71 -112 -197 -297 -336 -211 -47 94 229 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.1 22.8 22.5 22.1 21.9 21.4 21.0 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 98.1 98.2 98.3 98.4 98.5 98.9 99.8 100.8 102.1 103.3 104.8 106.4 107.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 4 3 2 3 4 6 6 7 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 56 54 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 6. 11. 17. 20. 25. 30. 34. 39. 40. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952012 INVEST 08/19/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952012 INVEST 08/19/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)