* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952012 06/19/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 43 44 46 51 55 55 53 51 46 41 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 43 44 46 51 55 55 53 51 46 41 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 44 46 50 51 51 52 53 52 51 51 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 17 7 12 18 18 17 14 8 22 19 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -9 -6 -2 -4 -2 1 3 1 -1 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 237 211 240 350 358 326 277 246 274 263 256 250 261 SST (C) 22.9 22.8 22.6 22.6 22.6 21.6 19.7 19.0 18.4 17.0 15.0 13.5 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 90 89 89 90 91 87 79 76 73 69 66 65 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 78 77 77 78 80 78 72 70 67 64 62 62 62 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.7 -57.1 -56.7 -56.8 -55.8 -55.2 -55.7 -55.6 -54.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 48 48 44 42 44 58 62 63 60 61 54 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 16 19 22 19 17 17 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 38 38 35 29 45 76 121 168 169 161 157 144 112 200 MB DIV 43 10 -13 -2 4 52 46 41 22 14 15 -15 -26 700-850 TADV -6 0 1 8 -2 4 3 20 -3 -1 -2 -5 -6 LAND (KM) 682 692 702 772 852 883 907 926 901 853 781 772 849 LAT (DEG N) 39.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 9 11 13 16 14 11 8 6 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 10 CX,CY: 6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 22. 22. 20. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -18. -22. -26. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 0. -2. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 11. 15. 15. 13. 11. 6. 1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952012 INVEST 06/19/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952012 INVEST 06/19/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952012 INVEST 06/19/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)