* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952012 06/19/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 44 44 46 50 57 58 55 50 44 38 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 44 44 46 50 57 58 55 50 44 38 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 44 46 50 52 53 54 55 54 51 50 Storm Type SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 16 10 8 16 17 18 14 11 22 20 20 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -8 -8 -3 -4 0 0 1 -3 -2 -5 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 236 230 246 323 355 354 291 236 303 312 286 294 304 SST (C) 22.9 22.8 22.3 22.4 22.5 22.3 21.0 19.7 18.0 16.2 14.0 12.1 10.7 POT. INT. (KT) 91 90 86 86 88 91 87 81 75 70 65 63 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 79 77 74 74 77 81 80 75 69 65 62 61 61 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -57.3 -57.5 -57.1 -56.5 -56.2 -55.5 -56.5 -56.7 -56.2 -55.0 -54.3 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 44 46 43 37 37 51 60 59 65 56 52 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 16 16 16 16 18 21 19 16 13 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 42 31 38 34 30 63 97 126 127 121 113 105 60 200 MB DIV 44 46 10 -23 -17 36 41 27 19 18 0 -20 -30 700-850 TADV -2 -4 1 2 8 -3 1 -7 -1 -2 -5 -9 -5 LAND (KM) 696 668 618 645 675 905 1062 1116 1047 938 820 706 625 LAT (DEG N) 38.5 39.2 39.8 39.7 39.6 38.3 37.5 39.3 42.2 44.6 46.0 46.3 45.7 LONG(DEG W) 60.5 59.9 59.3 58.7 58.0 55.4 49.6 43.8 41.5 41.4 42.3 43.7 45.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 5 5 8 17 23 20 14 10 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 12 CX,CY: 5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 20. 24. 25. 24. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -17. -21. -26. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 10. 17. 18. 15. 10. 4. -2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952012 INVEST 06/19/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952012 INVEST 06/19/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952012 INVEST 06/19/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)