* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952012 06/18/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 47 49 51 54 59 63 64 60 54 49 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 47 49 51 54 59 63 64 60 54 49 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 44 47 51 55 57 59 59 58 55 52 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 26 16 6 7 21 7 17 21 11 20 17 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -9 -8 -4 -5 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 214 232 233 226 323 17 303 236 214 279 302 289 279 SST (C) 23.0 23.0 22.4 22.3 22.3 22.9 21.9 21.0 19.9 18.3 16.2 14.3 12.8 POT. INT. (KT) 92 91 87 85 86 91 89 86 82 76 70 66 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 79 75 73 73 79 80 80 76 70 66 62 60 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -56.3 -56.9 -57.4 -56.8 -56.1 -55.5 -55.6 -56.6 -56.6 -56.1 -55.6 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 2 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 46 43 42 36 34 37 57 60 57 61 58 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 17 16 16 16 16 18 19 18 16 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 35 43 34 40 38 50 78 116 160 135 97 112 90 200 MB DIV 33 29 36 18 -2 13 38 62 55 11 17 -9 -29 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 0 0 3 -2 -6 -6 -1 2 -9 -10 LAND (KM) 706 651 606 611 615 753 1001 1124 1111 1038 956 849 753 LAT (DEG N) 38.0 38.8 39.6 39.7 39.8 38.8 37.4 36.9 39.0 41.9 44.5 46.0 46.5 LONG(DEG W) 61.3 60.9 60.4 59.9 59.4 58.2 55.2 49.7 44.4 41.9 41.2 41.9 43.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 6 4 5 10 17 22 20 15 10 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 16 CX,CY: 5/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 19. 22. 24. 24. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 19. 23. 24. 20. 14. 9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952012 INVEST 06/18/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952012 INVEST 06/18/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952012 INVEST 06/18/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)