* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952012 06/18/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 43 47 45 41 38 41 46 44 38 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 43 47 45 41 38 41 46 44 38 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 38 43 47 47 47 50 53 53 Storm Type EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 39 31 29 31 22 5 23 30 20 8 10 25 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -4 -2 -6 -9 -4 0 -4 0 0 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 215 211 220 243 229 288 32 44 20 324 280 264 254 SST (C) 22.6 22.6 22.8 22.7 22.3 22.0 22.7 22.4 22.1 22.3 20.7 18.2 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 92 91 91 90 86 83 89 89 91 94 87 79 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 81 80 78 74 70 76 79 83 89 83 74 71 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -57.2 -57.1 -56.2 -56.9 -57.4 -56.6 -56.2 -55.7 -55.7 -56.1 -56.6 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 1 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 63 59 51 47 46 36 29 35 47 55 59 64 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 19 17 16 16 13 11 11 14 18 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 34 44 44 40 30 35 24 50 37 80 105 104 49 200 MB DIV 60 51 37 48 41 -16 -16 31 29 40 29 44 20 700-850 TADV 3 7 0 3 0 -1 2 9 -5 4 2 -1 4 LAND (KM) 987 852 727 674 631 624 727 929 1237 1526 1595 1539 1534 LAT (DEG N) 34.9 36.3 37.7 38.5 39.3 39.6 38.7 37.0 34.8 33.2 34.9 38.9 42.7 LONG(DEG W) 62.6 62.1 61.5 61.0 60.4 59.8 59.5 58.6 56.0 49.8 42.3 37.5 34.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 12 9 6 2 7 12 20 28 29 25 22 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 17 CX,CY: 7/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. 1. 4. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 4. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 22. 23. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -8. -6. -3. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 17. 15. 11. 8. 11. 16. 14. 8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952012 INVEST 06/18/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952012 INVEST 06/18/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952012 INVEST 06/18/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)