* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL942013 09/16/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 41 44 47 49 52 56 63 70 76 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 41 44 47 49 52 56 63 70 76 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 37 40 45 49 56 63 69 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 25 21 17 16 17 17 14 9 9 11 18 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 2 0 -2 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 2 4 SHEAR DIR 261 264 286 292 304 324 326 318 302 259 273 238 213 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.4 26.8 25.9 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 124 125 127 128 130 128 130 129 124 116 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 106 107 107 107 106 107 105 108 110 108 103 91 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.7 -56.2 -56.3 -56.5 -56.0 -55.7 -55.5 -55.8 -55.7 -55.7 -55.6 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 3 700-500 MB RH 49 50 48 48 48 49 54 54 57 53 49 41 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 15 14 14 13 12 12 14 18 24 850 MB ENV VOR 2 5 1 3 13 5 8 -1 3 2 28 28 84 200 MB DIV 17 9 -5 -8 -5 -1 -3 -11 27 13 58 57 44 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 4 1 0 0 0 3 6 13 18 6 LAND (KM) 2369 2278 2188 2117 2046 1986 1899 1845 1799 1722 1616 1560 1608 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 3 4 3 6 11 16 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 7 10 11 9 9 8 8 5 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -1. 2. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 21. 28. 35. 41. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942013 HUMBERTO 09/16/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942013 HUMBERTO 09/16/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942013 HUMBERTO 09/16/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)