* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL942013 09/16/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 40 45 47 51 52 53 56 61 65 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 40 45 47 51 52 53 56 61 65 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 34 33 34 35 39 44 50 55 60 64 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 40 33 23 18 13 16 18 15 18 17 18 19 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 4 2 0 -4 -2 -4 -3 -5 -3 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 264 262 266 281 294 328 322 325 312 309 288 222 214 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.7 26.8 25.8 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 126 130 132 136 138 139 137 133 124 114 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 107 109 112 112 114 115 115 115 113 106 98 87 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.6 -55.6 -56.1 -56.3 -56.2 -56.1 -55.8 -55.9 -55.9 -56.1 -56.0 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 3 700-500 MB RH 49 49 50 48 47 49 52 57 60 61 57 51 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 14 16 16 15 14 13 12 11 11 14 850 MB ENV VOR -3 3 14 7 5 7 6 10 -2 3 10 27 70 200 MB DIV 0 0 18 -9 -16 11 -9 25 4 36 37 76 48 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 2 -1 7 -4 -12 LAND (KM) 2421 2353 2286 2210 2134 2024 1920 1834 1734 1630 1513 1439 1447 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 5 8 12 14 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 15 13 12 10 9 9 10 7 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 12. 16. 17. 18. 21. 26. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942013 HUMBERTO 09/16/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942013 HUMBERTO 09/16/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942013 HUMBERTO 09/16/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)