* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL942013 09/16/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 40 46 51 55 57 61 64 70 71 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 40 46 51 55 57 61 64 70 71 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 33 33 34 37 43 49 56 61 63 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 43 43 31 23 19 12 14 17 16 15 20 24 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 3 0 1 -2 -1 -4 -2 -4 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 263 267 269 268 287 295 295 315 291 297 283 247 233 SST (C) 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.2 25.9 23.3 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 126 128 131 137 139 137 136 128 117 98 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 108 108 109 111 116 116 113 115 111 103 89 77 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.5 -55.8 -55.7 -56.1 -56.2 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -56.4 -56.7 -57.6 -56.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 6 5 2 1 700-500 MB RH 44 49 48 49 46 48 52 57 57 63 62 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 14 16 18 17 17 16 16 16 18 22 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 4 13 7 17 8 20 8 25 23 20 4 200 MB DIV -3 1 0 12 -5 -7 4 5 -6 38 72 88 88 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 6 2 -15 LAND (KM) 2416 2343 2271 2216 2160 2011 1855 1747 1674 1538 1392 1371 1526 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 6 7 6 5 9 15 21 25 26 HEAT CONTENT 8 12 11 12 12 10 9 10 8 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 14. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 3. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 16. 20. 22. 26. 29. 35. 36. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942013 HUMBERTO 09/16/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942013 HUMBERTO 09/16/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942013 HUMBERTO 09/16/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)