* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL942013 09/15/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 35 37 38 43 46 51 58 66 70 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 35 37 38 43 46 51 58 66 70 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 31 29 29 31 36 41 49 57 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 45 44 43 34 31 22 17 13 10 9 7 11 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 2 5 0 0 0 1 2 5 6 7 SHEAR DIR 262 275 277 270 266 301 306 302 311 301 251 229 234 SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 117 118 120 124 127 132 136 138 138 131 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 102 102 103 104 106 108 112 114 114 117 113 105 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.5 -55.2 -54.5 -55.0 -55.4 -55.2 -55.5 -55.4 -55.4 -55.1 -55.2 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 39 39 38 38 41 44 45 49 49 51 51 54 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 17 16 14 16 16 19 19 21 23 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 9 4 6 4 1 21 15 33 23 31 37 35 20 200 MB DIV 33 25 5 31 10 24 9 4 16 6 30 72 56 700-850 TADV 5 7 13 6 3 2 2 1 1 6 10 19 22 LAND (KM) 2172 2245 2319 2384 2450 2333 2227 2097 1959 1827 1697 1590 1564 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.8 28.5 29.4 30.5 31.6 33.0 34.9 37.0 LONG(DEG W) 37.9 38.6 39.3 39.9 40.5 41.6 42.5 43.5 44.2 44.7 44.3 42.4 39.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 10 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 1 1 3 8 10 15 10 10 11 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 781 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 0. 2. 3. 8. 11. 16. 23. 31. 35. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942013 HUMBERTO 09/15/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942013 HUMBERTO 09/15/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942013 HUMBERTO 09/15/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)