* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942013 08/18/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 31 35 46 55 64 71 76 79 81 80 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 31 35 46 55 64 71 76 79 81 80 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 42 51 61 70 75 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 20 21 18 15 17 15 14 9 6 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 3 3 3 0 -3 -5 -3 -6 -4 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 82 77 77 79 88 96 108 114 122 142 165 216 238 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 131 131 130 130 126 121 118 117 117 117 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 130 129 128 128 126 121 115 111 110 109 109 109 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 59 58 56 56 55 52 51 50 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 182 183 180 185 184 165 156 144 129 114 95 77 61 200 MB DIV 67 59 63 92 111 75 48 29 6 8 -12 -22 -6 700-850 TADV -6 -12 -7 -4 -5 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 554 672 791 897 1006 1208 1405 1583 1751 1900 2061 2018 1976 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.7 15.3 16.1 16.8 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 21.9 23.2 24.4 25.5 26.6 28.6 30.5 32.2 33.8 35.2 36.7 38.1 39.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 8 10 5 6 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 409 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 26. 35. 44. 51. 56. 59. 61. 60. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942013 INVEST 08/18/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942013 INVEST 08/18/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)