* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942013 08/18/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 44 53 63 71 79 84 89 92 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 44 53 63 71 79 84 89 92 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 28 33 40 51 64 77 87 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 14 19 21 18 17 13 11 5 7 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 5 3 3 3 0 -5 -4 -2 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 93 103 104 99 99 106 90 95 68 75 32 335 4 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 131 131 129 127 124 120 117 118 118 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 131 130 128 125 123 118 113 110 110 110 110 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 60 59 57 58 59 56 57 56 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 191 176 179 174 182 177 162 149 127 118 102 99 84 200 MB DIV 58 75 53 46 60 74 51 33 -11 -13 -16 6 4 700-850 TADV -1 2 6 10 7 1 -3 -5 -5 -3 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 347 481 607 714 828 1026 1232 1422 1613 1762 1911 2050 1972 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.7 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 20.0 21.3 22.5 23.7 24.9 26.9 28.9 30.7 32.5 33.9 35.3 36.6 38.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 4 9 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 433 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 24. 33. 43. 51. 59. 64. 69. 72. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942013 INVEST 08/18/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942013 INVEST 08/18/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)