* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942013 08/18/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 29 34 44 53 61 67 71 72 75 77 V (KT) LAND 20 22 27 31 35 46 55 63 68 72 74 77 79 V (KT) LGE mod 20 22 26 28 30 35 44 54 65 71 73 75 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 24 22 20 19 6 7 10 11 12 8 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 0 -2 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 41 44 38 32 43 63 158 178 185 174 195 187 207 SST (C) 27.7 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 26.7 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 139 139 138 135 122 115 114 114 113 116 118 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 139 137 134 118 109 108 108 107 109 112 112 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 67 67 65 63 60 58 58 56 53 54 52 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 144 132 126 133 127 131 144 146 141 138 129 111 103 200 MB DIV 4 19 32 52 44 51 38 59 23 4 -1 -17 -4 700-850 TADV -26 -20 -25 -32 -26 -14 -7 -5 -1 -3 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) -43 -46 75 177 264 522 793 1060 1329 1582 1804 2018 1950 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.3 15.6 16.5 16.8 16.5 16.3 15.9 15.8 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 15.1 16.3 17.5 18.7 19.9 22.3 24.7 27.2 29.8 32.2 34.3 36.3 38.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 19 7 7 3 2 0 0 1 3 1 2 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 382 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 14. 24. 33. 41. 47. 51. 52. 56. 57. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942013 INVEST 08/18/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942013 INVEST 08/18/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)