* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942013 07/05/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 26 29 31 35 38 42 44 46 47 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 19 24 26 26 27 27 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 34 32 23 16 17 7 8 9 6 15 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 1 -3 2 0 6 2 7 1 9 5 SHEAR DIR 281 274 282 287 258 309 11 323 79 58 81 108 89 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 29.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 137 136 133 131 135 139 140 143 145 151 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 123 119 118 116 115 118 121 123 125 126 132 118 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 10 9 10 10 11 12 12 10 9 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 67 64 63 63 60 64 62 64 65 63 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 28 16 -4 8 5 -10 1 -14 0 1 40 32 200 MB DIV 20 46 25 22 41 31 30 25 -10 21 -13 19 5 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 0 5 -8 0 -16 -5 -9 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 184 168 153 117 74 -47 -223 -385 -511 -370 -241 -74 34 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.4 23.9 24.3 24.7 25.4 26.1 26.4 26.8 27.0 27.1 26.9 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.2 96.3 96.6 96.9 97.9 99.5 101.2 103.1 105.1 106.9 108.7 110.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 29 28 21 16 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 15. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942013 INVEST 07/05/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942013 INVEST 07/05/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)