* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 09/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 38 39 39 41 41 36 29 26 23 20 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 38 39 39 41 41 32 30 26 23 20 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 40 43 47 49 38 38 37 38 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 17 18 16 12 18 38 58 69 69 62 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -4 -4 0 -4 -2 3 6 5 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 343 356 5 23 6 354 236 229 220 218 233 241 255 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 25.2 18.6 14.5 11.0 10.7 9.3 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 118 118 120 122 110 80 73 69 69 67 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 100 98 98 99 102 95 74 70 68 67 66 65 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.5 -56.5 -56.2 -56.2 -56.0 -56.1 -55.9 -55.4 -54.7 -55.2 -54.5 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 55 55 55 53 50 47 53 60 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 12 10 9 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 58 51 41 14 0 -15 -29 -77 -35 11 39 -5 200 MB DIV -9 -23 -11 -9 0 7 26 38 65 71 67 53 21 700-850 TADV 0 -4 0 0 -3 -3 -14 -25 -4 20 -17 -26 -16 LAND (KM) 1207 1125 1045 973 901 713 485 180 -57 252 699 1177 1547 LAT (DEG N) 33.7 34.2 34.7 35.3 35.8 37.5 40.3 44.3 48.9 53.3 56.8 59.0 60.1 LONG(DEG W) 59.5 60.4 61.2 61.7 62.2 62.5 61.5 59.3 55.9 52.1 46.9 40.0 32.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 8 11 18 24 25 24 22 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 6. 0. -6. -12. -18. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 1. -6. -9. -12. -15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 09/22/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 09/22/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)