* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 09/21/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 43 45 44 38 29 22 18 15 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 42 43 45 44 39 30 28 23 21 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 39 41 45 49 52 44 44 36 35 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 19 20 18 23 13 41 66 82 72 62 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -5 -2 -3 -5 0 1 9 8 5 9 8 SHEAR DIR 343 353 355 6 18 335 262 228 215 212 221 233 233 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.9 26.9 22.1 17.2 14.3 10.3 9.2 7.0 POT. INT. (KT) 128 123 119 119 119 123 125 91 76 72 69 67 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 105 101 99 99 102 106 82 72 69 67 66 65 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.5 -56.5 -56.3 -56.1 -56.1 -55.9 -55.6 -54.9 -53.6 -53.0 -52.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 57 57 58 56 55 57 49 49 54 61 52 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 14 13 12 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 72 62 57 45 6 2 -14 -38 -50 25 90 84 200 MB DIV 3 2 -26 -17 1 -5 30 33 56 67 69 41 23 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -2 0 6 0 -37 -46 -54 -15 -23 -38 LAND (KM) 1321 1227 1137 1062 988 836 588 305 33 24 274 763 1125 LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.5 34.0 34.5 35.0 36.2 38.5 42.0 46.5 51.1 55.5 58.8 61.0 LONG(DEG W) 58.4 59.5 60.6 61.4 62.1 63.1 63.2 62.1 60.1 57.7 54.0 48.7 42.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 9 15 21 24 24 23 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 9 1 0 0 1 5 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 4. -2. -11. -18. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 9. 3. -6. -13. -17. -20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 09/21/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 09/21/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)