* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 09/21/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 43 45 46 48 46 42 36 38 34 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 42 43 45 46 48 46 42 32 38 34 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 40 42 46 49 52 52 49 35 37 39 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 13 19 22 16 13 14 40 58 59 57 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -6 -5 -4 -1 -8 -1 4 4 2 -7 -2 SHEAR DIR 343 346 353 355 5 349 316 252 211 215 218 228 241 SST (C) 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.4 24.0 18.7 16.3 14.3 12.9 16.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 129 124 119 119 120 119 100 77 72 69 68 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 109 105 101 100 100 101 86 71 67 66 66 68 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.5 -56.4 -56.2 -56.2 -56.0 -55.9 -56.1 -56.2 -55.6 -56.9 -57.8 -58.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 55 57 58 59 56 55 51 49 44 48 41 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 14 13 12 10 7 5 4 4 3 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 101 93 78 59 54 20 0 -38 -45 -69 -66 -82 -97 200 MB DIV 3 14 1 -27 -8 3 10 31 50 68 50 44 30 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 -4 -1 1 0 -7 -25 -14 -21 -37 -31 LAND (KM) 1441 1346 1252 1168 1086 933 709 475 206 89 -1 275 658 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 9 14 15 15 14 14 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 15 10 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. -2. -8. -13. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 16. 19. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -15. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 11. 7. 1. 3. -1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 09/21/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 09/21/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)