* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 09/21/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 44 45 44 43 44 44 44 45 45 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 44 45 44 43 44 44 44 45 45 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 40 42 47 50 51 53 53 52 50 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 17 18 24 20 21 5 9 23 22 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -7 -7 -8 -2 -3 -5 1 6 8 1 3 SHEAR DIR 328 334 347 346 351 20 351 359 216 229 232 238 254 SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.8 26.4 24.6 22.4 20.4 18.1 16.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 132 127 122 119 119 121 118 102 89 81 76 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 112 108 104 101 99 100 98 86 78 73 70 68 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.8 -56.6 -56.4 -56.3 -56.0 -56.0 -55.7 -56.1 -56.8 -57.6 -57.7 -57.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 50 53 54 55 58 54 56 51 48 48 45 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 16 15 13 10 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 85 82 70 51 38 -11 -9 -40 -69 -107 -130 -123 200 MB DIV 3 -7 8 -6 -22 4 -3 17 23 40 30 49 21 700-850 TADV 4 -4 -2 0 -3 1 3 1 -20 -10 0 2 -2 LAND (KM) 1487 1393 1301 1207 1117 964 792 635 524 425 355 237 439 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 7 8 11 11 12 13 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 7 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 2. 4. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 16. 19. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 09/21/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 09/21/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)