* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 09/21/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 51 53 54 53 53 52 49 46 45 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 51 53 54 53 53 52 49 38 40 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 48 54 57 59 60 61 56 42 43 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 18 16 17 19 19 14 10 19 40 55 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -7 -8 -7 -4 -7 -7 -3 3 7 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 335 338 329 350 4 22 353 348 283 222 209 208 229 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.7 26.6 25.8 23.2 18.3 14.8 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 134 127 122 118 120 119 112 94 77 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 119 115 109 104 99 98 98 94 82 71 69 68 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.6 -56.7 -56.5 -56.2 -56.0 -55.9 -55.9 -56.0 -56.3 -56.0 -56.9 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 5 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 56 56 61 57 55 56 52 48 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 18 17 16 13 10 7 4 2 3 6 10 850 MB ENV VOR 91 86 87 79 65 46 14 -21 -22 -27 -51 -119 -104 200 MB DIV 27 14 -6 6 -2 0 9 6 13 30 50 46 27 700-850 TADV 0 4 4 0 -1 -5 4 0 0 2 -51 -28 -30 LAND (KM) 1589 1512 1421 1314 1210 1024 856 727 631 444 245 -34 401 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 10 8 7 8 11 14 19 23 25 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 5. 4. 1. -4. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 18. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -15. -17. -16. -13. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 18. 18. 17. 14. 11. 10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 09/21/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 09/21/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)