* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 09/20/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 46 49 55 57 55 53 53 47 46 47 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 46 49 55 57 55 53 53 47 45 41 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 49 54 57 59 62 57 48 36 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 20 20 21 18 20 25 22 13 25 60 73 72 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -7 -6 -5 -7 -5 -5 -7 -1 15 1 2 SHEAR DIR 354 355 342 335 333 354 4 352 325 221 204 192 195 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.5 26.7 26.5 26.8 27.2 24.6 17.6 15.5 11.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 137 131 121 118 121 127 105 77 74 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 119 120 118 112 103 99 100 106 91 72 70 68 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.2 -56.4 -56.7 -56.9 -56.5 -56.2 -56.0 -55.9 -55.8 -54.3 -52.3 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 6 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 50 54 53 53 56 58 53 53 49 46 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 17 18 16 15 12 9 5 2 3 12 21 850 MB ENV VOR 91 83 83 79 74 58 36 5 -3 15 9 21 -12 200 MB DIV 27 31 15 10 -12 -12 -1 -4 3 42 42 46 60 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 0 0 -2 5 -1 -31 -88 -93 -93 LAND (KM) 1723 1650 1563 1472 1372 1168 1003 850 657 360 18 97 28 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.7 32.2 32.7 33.2 34.2 35.1 36.2 37.8 40.7 44.6 48.9 52.8 LONG(DEG W) 52.3 53.3 54.3 55.6 56.8 59.2 61.2 62.5 63.4 63.3 62.7 60.4 55.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 11 12 11 10 9 8 12 17 21 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 5 10 13 9 8 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 18. 18. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. -5. -12. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -14. -6. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 19. 25. 27. 25. 23. 23. 17. 16. 17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 09/20/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 09/20/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)