* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 09/20/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 46 51 58 60 58 55 54 55 48 37 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 46 51 58 60 58 55 54 55 43 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 44 51 57 59 60 61 58 52 38 Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 10 19 24 19 23 28 23 24 13 44 65 76 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -6 -9 -6 -8 -6 -5 -7 -1 4 15 14 SHEAR DIR 73 341 334 326 331 353 353 349 337 229 211 208 200 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 26.9 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.0 19.9 16.3 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 138 136 123 118 119 122 116 82 75 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 116 118 118 116 105 99 98 101 99 76 70 68 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.5 -56.1 -56.3 -56.7 -56.6 -56.2 -55.8 -55.6 -55.6 -54.7 -53.4 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 5 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 52 52 54 55 58 57 56 55 57 45 42 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 18 18 19 17 14 11 7 4 9 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 86 91 82 84 82 66 48 25 -18 15 20 0 3 200 MB DIV 33 29 27 1 2 -15 -14 0 5 42 41 69 59 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 -1 0 -2 0 6 8 6 -22 -51 -77 LAND (KM) 1750 1690 1626 1534 1444 1239 1052 897 737 499 203 -7 -25 LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.5 32.0 32.5 33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.3 39.7 43.3 47.6 51.9 LONG(DEG W) 51.5 52.3 53.1 54.3 55.4 58.0 60.1 61.6 62.4 62.3 61.0 59.0 56.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 10 11 11 11 9 7 9 15 21 23 22 HEAT CONTENT 0 8 10 12 6 6 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 18. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 5. 2. 1. -2. -8. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -8. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 21. 28. 30. 28. 25. 24. 25. 18. 7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 09/20/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 09/20/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)