* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 08/21/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 45 57 68 81 87 95 97 99 101 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 45 57 68 81 87 83 92 86 83 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 39 49 61 76 92 91 104 97 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 13 14 11 7 3 3 9 7 11 16 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 3 2 0 7 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 15 7 38 61 18 6 324 353 295 288 262 250 251 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 144 147 150 155 151 147 147 154 161 161 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 142 147 150 154 159 152 146 143 149 155 153 151 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 68 65 66 65 61 62 62 63 58 60 64 63 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 14 13 15 14 17 14 17 15 16 20 850 MB ENV VOR 84 85 87 93 91 98 90 93 97 90 73 72 70 200 MB DIV 40 57 73 73 82 83 60 60 40 70 41 56 55 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -6 -7 -6 -5 -3 -4 -6 2 7 12 7 LAND (KM) 1130 1074 901 759 651 489 209 179 34 -15 43 16 0 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 18 18 18 16 15 14 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 27 34 39 47 69 56 71 63 92 20 104 90 117 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 29. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. -2. 1. -1. 0. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 27. 38. 52. 57. 65. 67. 69. 71. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 08/21/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 08/21/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)