* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 08/21/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 48 58 69 78 84 90 89 90 88 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 48 58 69 78 84 79 72 81 63 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 44 54 68 83 96 103 85 95 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 13 12 9 7 1 10 10 14 19 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 -1 0 2 -4 -3 0 0 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 24 13 5 34 34 343 35 313 310 273 248 259 244 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 29.1 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 139 143 147 153 154 150 147 146 154 161 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 140 145 149 156 154 148 143 141 148 153 151 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.1 -52.8 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 10 12 11 11 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 63 63 61 61 61 58 59 62 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 13 15 13 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 89 87 85 83 91 80 73 72 72 69 65 51 45 200 MB DIV 51 34 51 63 41 66 61 51 49 37 47 44 60 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -6 -6 -3 0 -4 -5 2 0 3 -1 LAND (KM) 1207 1141 1076 925 790 608 355 133 89 -12 -2 44 -3 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 17 17 17 15 14 13 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 28 34 38 45 62 62 76 68 70 22 105 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):271/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 28. 39. 48. 54. 60. 59. 60. 58. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 08/21/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 08/21/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)