* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 08/20/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 48 59 72 83 91 93 96 97 95 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 48 59 72 83 91 93 96 93 64 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 45 56 70 86 102 110 110 106 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 12 9 8 4 7 13 10 7 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 -2 -1 -6 -3 0 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 21 33 5 356 25 345 38 321 340 283 293 266 246 SST (C) 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 132 133 136 140 145 146 149 149 146 151 158 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 133 134 137 142 147 148 149 147 141 145 151 154 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 60 59 58 57 56 61 61 65 63 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 13 14 14 15 12 13 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 71 82 82 84 83 80 77 76 85 91 90 66 58 200 MB DIV 55 50 41 41 46 51 67 40 56 52 59 33 32 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -5 -7 -6 -7 0 -3 -2 0 4 -1 2 LAND (KM) 1338 1257 1185 1088 926 676 473 172 137 32 0 36 -42 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 18 18 18 17 16 14 12 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 29 40 46 69 57 73 65 88 43 98 109 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 29. 42. 53. 61. 63. 66. 67. 65. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 08/20/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 08/20/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)