* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 08/20/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 40 53 66 79 91 96 100 102 102 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 40 53 66 79 91 96 100 102 102 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 33 41 53 69 85 98 105 107 107 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 6 6 3 7 3 8 4 10 7 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 0 -2 -3 2 0 4 -1 4 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 116 147 4 24 29 15 11 352 352 302 278 308 303 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.7 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 125 127 130 136 142 145 148 149 148 147 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 125 128 132 138 143 147 149 149 146 144 148 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 63 65 58 56 56 56 56 60 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 14 15 17 19 18 19 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 67 69 73 80 90 100 97 93 83 74 81 74 92 200 MB DIV 46 45 45 63 69 47 56 59 77 67 38 34 42 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -4 0 -2 -1 0 -5 1 9 0 10 LAND (KM) 1695 1598 1505 1394 1309 1107 821 624 364 169 152 86 92 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 18 19 20 19 17 18 17 15 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 14 13 24 36 44 64 61 69 70 106 87 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 5. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 28. 41. 54. 66. 71. 75. 77. 78. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 08/20/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 08/20/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)