* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 08/19/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 56 67 77 86 93 96 98 92 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 56 67 77 86 93 96 98 92 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 53 64 78 93 105 110 112 110 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 4 1 5 8 7 9 8 11 13 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 0 0 1 -3 -3 -4 -3 -6 0 0 SHEAR DIR 61 13 64 311 335 19 349 15 305 336 311 296 297 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 126 125 125 127 133 140 145 146 147 149 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 129 127 126 126 128 135 142 146 144 144 149 148 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 10 11 11 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 64 62 63 64 63 61 59 56 56 58 58 62 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 15 15 16 10 850 MB ENV VOR 33 35 42 55 59 76 86 82 73 60 44 48 37 200 MB DIV 41 30 41 35 26 43 42 36 33 52 60 69 9 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 0 -1 1 1 -1 6 5 LAND (KM) 1860 1992 1865 1743 1639 1398 1227 948 691 517 276 124 49 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 17 14 14 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 14 10 13 22 32 39 56 62 70 67 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 26. 37. 47. 56. 63. 66. 68. 62. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 08/19/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 08/19/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)