* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 08/18/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 43 55 64 75 84 91 96 97 100 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 43 55 64 75 84 91 96 97 100 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 41 51 63 76 89 99 103 104 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 12 7 4 3 6 9 12 5 8 8 10 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 5 3 4 0 -2 2 0 3 0 7 SHEAR DIR 41 38 26 352 53 334 354 327 325 270 230 238 247 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.6 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 131 128 127 125 126 129 134 141 145 148 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 131 130 127 125 124 126 129 135 143 147 148 148 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.4 -52.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 10 11 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 64 66 64 60 56 52 49 49 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 14 15 17 17 19 21 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 54 47 39 40 41 55 63 71 71 67 66 62 73 200 MB DIV 22 37 58 55 59 24 24 53 63 52 55 50 71 700-850 TADV -17 -10 -7 -3 -5 -2 -4 3 -1 0 0 7 5 LAND (KM) 1571 1718 1865 1944 1882 1672 1498 1344 1205 867 662 381 200 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.5 16.4 16.5 16.4 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 32.0 33.4 34.8 36.3 37.7 40.7 44.1 47.8 51.5 55.4 59.2 62.7 65.8 STM SPEED (KT) 20 14 14 14 14 16 18 18 18 18 18 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 13 15 16 13 16 25 35 35 56 61 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 373 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 18. 30. 39. 50. 59. 66. 71. 72. 75. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 08/18/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 08/18/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)