* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 08/18/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 36 41 50 58 66 75 82 90 96 105 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 36 41 50 58 66 75 82 90 96 105 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 32 34 40 46 53 59 68 78 91 103 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 18 11 6 6 4 6 6 4 3 2 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 5 7 7 6 4 5 4 1 9 4 6 SHEAR DIR 45 49 46 35 22 189 284 263 309 254 136 101 51 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.8 26.8 27.3 27.7 28.3 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 136 133 130 126 125 126 131 136 144 147 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 136 136 133 129 125 126 127 133 139 147 148 146 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -52.5 -51.7 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 10 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 66 61 61 57 54 51 48 45 44 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 14 14 13 13 15 17 20 22 24 28 29 33 850 MB ENV VOR 32 33 30 19 17 38 48 68 69 83 92 99 116 200 MB DIV 43 52 39 35 39 48 28 46 72 50 64 46 58 700-850 TADV -10 -7 -4 -1 -1 10 0 0 -1 -7 -9 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 1136 1259 1388 1537 1689 2029 1788 1541 1321 1091 698 420 289 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.9 13.4 13.9 14.3 15.1 15.7 16.1 16.3 16.1 15.4 14.4 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 27.7 29.0 30.3 31.8 33.2 36.4 40.0 44.1 48.5 52.5 56.6 59.8 62.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 17 19 20 20 20 18 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 16 14 10 10 5 17 27 36 44 54 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 14. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 16. 25. 33. 41. 50. 57. 65. 71. 80. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 08/18/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 08/18/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)