* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 08/18/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 49 57 64 73 81 90 101 108 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 49 57 64 73 81 90 101 108 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 39 46 54 62 71 84 100 112 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 24 19 14 9 8 4 3 1 4 2 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 4 3 5 6 4 6 3 3 1 SHEAR DIR 39 47 51 55 63 37 172 209 296 76 107 51 22 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 137 137 134 131 129 127 131 136 139 144 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 138 137 134 130 129 128 134 139 143 145 147 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 66 67 66 66 62 65 60 58 52 50 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 11 11 12 13 14 16 19 21 23 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 28 36 34 31 27 32 50 66 80 78 90 96 104 200 MB DIV 37 38 25 39 31 17 36 41 60 32 58 96 106 700-850 TADV -18 -13 -10 -6 -4 -2 6 0 -4 -8 -4 -11 -4 LAND (KM) 1048 1184 1324 1462 1602 1908 1803 1559 1295 1079 893 542 294 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.9 14.1 14.5 14.5 14.4 13.9 13.1 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 26.8 28.2 29.6 31.0 32.3 35.2 38.3 41.8 45.7 49.6 53.4 56.6 58.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 14 15 16 18 19 18 17 14 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 17 16 12 8 15 5 11 21 34 42 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 6. 6. 8. 9. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 32. 39. 48. 56. 65. 76. 83. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 08/18/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 08/18/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)