* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 08/18/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 43 51 60 66 73 82 91 100 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 43 51 60 66 73 82 91 100 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 33 40 46 52 59 70 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 23 21 16 14 8 7 4 6 6 1 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 2 1 5 5 8 5 3 1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 34 39 39 47 47 54 164 228 196 299 350 52 63 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.9 27.2 27.6 28.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 137 139 139 134 132 129 126 130 135 142 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 138 139 138 133 132 130 128 132 139 147 152 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -53.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 9 10 12 700-500 MB RH 65 65 67 68 71 64 66 64 63 56 51 43 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 11 11 13 13 16 17 20 23 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR 35 34 42 43 42 38 52 64 73 74 72 71 80 200 MB DIV 67 53 50 41 45 43 35 38 56 57 30 76 51 700-850 TADV -11 -14 -12 -7 -4 -3 6 7 9 1 -6 -15 2 LAND (KM) 954 1087 1221 1330 1442 1685 1886 1754 1535 1307 1126 832 505 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.0 14.7 15.1 15.2 15.1 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 25.5 26.9 28.3 29.5 30.6 33.0 35.6 38.8 42.4 46.4 50.4 54.7 58.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 12 13 14 17 19 19 20 20 18 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 13 17 19 9 9 11 3 11 25 34 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 8. 7. 5. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 6. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 23. 31. 40. 46. 53. 62. 72. 80. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 08/18/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 08/18/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)