* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 08/17/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 44 56 66 75 84 91 101 107 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 44 56 66 75 84 91 101 107 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 28 33 41 50 59 69 81 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 18 16 10 9 11 11 13 13 12 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 2 3 4 8 2 0 3 1 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 26 28 35 36 35 27 87 136 100 83 58 46 43 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 128 130 134 132 129 129 128 128 131 134 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 129 131 134 132 128 129 128 128 129 130 129 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -54.1 -53.3 -53.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.2 -52.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 68 65 66 67 69 68 68 70 65 64 59 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 12 14 16 18 21 22 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR 43 40 37 43 51 52 56 70 79 91 99 105 116 200 MB DIV 86 80 53 37 68 69 65 89 77 61 67 55 76 700-850 TADV -13 -12 -11 -11 -8 -17 -3 2 0 -5 -5 -7 -6 LAND (KM) 758 913 1054 1185 1318 1561 1821 1734 1564 1329 1133 983 917 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.4 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 23.7 25.2 26.6 28.0 29.3 31.7 34.2 36.9 39.9 42.7 45.4 47.5 49.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 13 12 12 13 14 14 14 12 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 12 16 20 21 18 11 15 21 36 41 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 17. 20. 22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 11. 11. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 24. 36. 46. 55. 64. 71. 81. 87. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 08/17/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 08/17/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED