* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 08/17/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 35 45 55 65 75 85 92 99 104 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 30 35 45 55 65 75 85 92 99 104 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 28 33 40 50 63 75 86 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 8 11 10 11 13 7 8 5 6 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 13 7 7 10 8 9 4 5 5 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 70 48 41 43 44 34 37 35 104 145 78 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 128 129 129 126 128 132 131 129 129 126 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 129 128 129 129 124 127 131 129 127 127 123 120 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.2 -54.0 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 72 68 65 65 63 64 67 67 65 65 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 9 9 10 9 11 11 14 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 40 42 43 50 66 65 70 85 92 95 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 52 54 77 113 83 50 49 69 99 77 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -9 -11 -18 -12 -7 -5 -8 -6 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 140 215 338 471 609 846 1091 1344 1588 1805 1765 1639 1517 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.7 13.2 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 17.2 18.5 19.8 21.1 22.4 24.9 27.3 29.7 32.0 34.5 37.0 39.5 41.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 5 5 6 6 11 15 19 18 19 11 6 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 21. 22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 25. 35. 45. 55. 65. 72. 79. 84. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 08/17/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 08/17/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED