* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 05/26/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 42 43 43 40 35 31 25 25 25 28 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 42 43 43 40 31 28 27 27 30 33 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 44 44 45 47 34 29 27 27 31 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 45 29 16 14 9 17 15 24 21 19 8 9 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 0 1 0 -3 -1 -5 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 239 244 247 247 267 326 318 351 354 351 320 281 239 SST (C) 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.7 25.1 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.3 24.0 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 94 93 96 102 105 107 105 101 99 96 98 98 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 81 79 82 89 92 93 90 87 84 81 85 87 92 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -53.6 -52.7 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 6 7 6 9 7 10 7 11 7 7 700-500 MB RH 55 55 53 53 52 50 49 48 51 52 56 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 15 13 11 10 8 9 9 11 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -60 -27 -8 -9 -2 1 -33 -26 -33 -4 -30 2 200 MB DIV 30 -3 -12 0 17 7 -13 -29 14 -8 16 -1 45 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -6 -5 -6 -2 -6 -3 0 3 10 -2 3 LAND (KM) 314 299 285 284 287 215 25 -102 -102 -129 -77 71 104 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 2 5 9 9 9 7 5 3 2 7 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 12 CX,CY: 3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -9. -15. -15. -15. -12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 05/26/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942012 INVEST 05/26/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 05/26/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)