* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 05/25/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 40 41 40 37 34 30 28 28 27 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 40 41 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 35 35 35 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 57 45 30 21 16 15 12 18 17 21 10 14 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 0 -1 -3 -3 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 232 232 238 229 224 287 308 324 343 347 343 239 231 SST (C) 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.5 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.3 23.2 22.1 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 98 95 96 100 103 109 114 107 103 98 92 87 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 81 81 85 88 96 100 91 89 85 80 77 74 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -53.3 -53.0 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 7 6 8 8 9 8 10 6 5 700-500 MB RH 59 52 52 52 48 49 49 49 48 50 57 54 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 15 14 14 12 10 9 8 8 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -29 -41 -13 3 -6 12 -11 -30 -46 4 -21 -23 200 MB DIV 70 14 0 11 13 18 -25 13 0 18 23 23 16 700-850 TADV 9 -8 0 -8 -6 -2 0 0 2 3 7 -1 1 LAND (KM) 406 367 329 311 303 319 20 -58 -87 -114 -134 -171 -209 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 4 3 5 7 11 10 5 6 6 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 10 CX,CY: 4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -5. -7. -7. -8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 05/25/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942012 INVEST 05/25/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 05/25/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)