* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 05/25/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 34 29 23 20 16 18 18 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 34 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 26 25 24 26 25 26 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 52 42 41 29 17 11 13 19 25 22 15 6 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 0 0 -3 1 -1 0 -1 -4 -3 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 240 234 246 250 256 260 330 328 358 3 10 297 242 SST (C) 24.7 24.3 23.8 23.8 23.8 24.3 24.5 23.8 23.0 22.7 22.8 22.7 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 106 100 95 94 94 98 99 95 89 86 85 86 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 88 82 80 80 84 85 81 77 74 72 74 74 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -55.2 -55.1 -54.5 -54.8 -53.7 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 4 4 7 4 8 6 11 7 10 5 700-500 MB RH 60 57 54 56 55 50 51 53 51 53 58 56 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 10 8 7 5 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -28 -58 -61 -40 -41 -50 -42 -72 -54 -22 -10 -25 200 MB DIV 49 68 22 1 -9 -1 14 -6 -10 31 20 19 -14 700-850 TADV 7 4 -5 -1 -9 -4 -5 -9 -4 2 7 18 -7 LAND (KM) 329 288 225 183 142 97 84 -9 -81 -136 -129 -128 -152 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 11 7 4 4 7 6 6 4 2 0 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 10 CX,CY: 4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 1. -3. -6. -7. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -7. -10. -14. -12. -12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 05/25/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942012 INVEST 05/25/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 05/25/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)