* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 05/24/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 30 32 32 30 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 31 29 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 48 48 58 55 50 47 37 23 22 23 22 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -6 -4 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 253 241 232 234 228 229 229 253 289 298 330 338 348 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.3 24.8 24.5 24.8 25.3 25.0 24.0 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 121 115 110 105 100 98 101 106 103 95 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 120 110 102 96 90 85 83 86 91 88 82 79 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -54.1 -54.0 -54.6 -54.4 -53.3 -52.3 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 6 5 8 6 700-500 MB RH 49 48 52 50 54 53 55 57 58 61 56 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 10 12 10 13 15 19 17 16 13 11 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR -7 13 12 -23 -19 5 26 22 16 11 -5 -8 -20 200 MB DIV 98 120 103 67 64 33 6 12 0 -18 -3 0 0 700-850 TADV 24 28 23 9 8 -3 1 -7 -5 -7 -3 -2 4 LAND (KM) 77 9 33 109 205 337 411 454 427 317 186 62 -14 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 25.2 26.6 27.6 28.5 29.1 28.9 29.2 29.9 30.7 31.4 32.2 32.8 LONG(DEG W) 81.1 80.5 79.8 79.2 78.5 77.2 76.4 76.0 76.5 77.5 78.8 79.8 80.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 13 11 8 5 3 3 5 7 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 11 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 5. 2. -7. -17. -23. -27. -28. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 7. 6. 4. 1. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. -2. -7. -12. -16. -17. -22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 05/24/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 51.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942012 INVEST 05/24/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 05/24/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)