* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 05/23/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 23 26 24 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 20 24 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 37 45 50 52 51 43 42 30 28 19 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 0 2 2 0 -5 -6 -4 -3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 265 262 260 249 234 235 235 242 241 254 247 261 348 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.2 26.3 25.8 25.7 26.2 26.7 26.1 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 138 132 128 117 109 108 114 120 114 121 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 128 122 117 103 92 92 99 105 101 106 105 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.0 -52.0 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 58 49 50 46 46 46 46 41 41 38 40 40 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 6 7 8 10 8 9 8 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 23 19 4 -8 6 -28 3 -21 8 -10 -17 -40 -35 200 MB DIV 87 99 86 73 93 68 62 -10 10 -8 -21 -14 -20 700-850 TADV 9 8 12 14 18 8 2 -4 -1 -2 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 182 86 -5 89 -21 63 196 199 80 -87 59 239 295 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.6 22.6 24.0 25.4 27.7 28.7 28.1 27.4 26.8 26.7 26.9 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 83.0 82.5 81.9 81.5 81.0 79.7 78.6 78.4 79.4 81.0 83.0 85.0 86.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 15 14 10 3 3 7 8 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 0 27 11 17 9 6 19 3 5 36 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 18. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -8. -20. -27. -33. -33. -33. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -12. -15. -19. -20. -21. -22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 05/23/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942012 INVEST 05/23/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 05/23/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)