* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 05/23/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 23 26 25 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 21 22 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 32 36 44 53 53 46 45 38 29 18 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 6 5 0 3 0 0 -6 -4 -5 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 263 265 251 251 248 229 240 241 241 241 277 288 317 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.4 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.0 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 142 135 130 119 112 107 107 109 112 112 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 134 131 125 120 107 96 90 91 92 96 97 91 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 7 8 6 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 58 55 52 48 49 48 52 48 50 48 52 55 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 10 9 8 8 11 11 15 17 18 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 21 20 15 -7 -8 7 -23 -3 10 19 4 -8 -41 200 MB DIV 70 89 91 97 78 106 73 37 2 5 14 4 -10 700-850 TADV 10 10 5 12 18 17 10 -2 -1 0 0 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 206 142 68 -10 97 -37 119 209 207 154 93 12 -70 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 21.0 21.9 23.1 24.3 27.0 28.7 28.9 28.3 27.9 28.0 28.7 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 83.7 83.1 82.5 82.0 81.5 80.5 79.4 78.5 78.4 78.8 79.5 80.6 82.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 12 13 14 12 6 2 3 3 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 40 54 38 28 2 27 5 6 10 22 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -7. -18. -27. -32. -33. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -19. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 05/23/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942012 INVEST 05/23/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 05/23/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)