* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 05/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 29 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 29 27 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 26 26 23 21 25 26 26 30 31 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 28 29 28 37 53 57 41 34 25 27 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 3 4 8 1 4 -3 -2 -6 -5 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 247 254 262 259 247 243 226 242 238 253 261 293 308 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.4 26.5 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.5 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 142 144 141 130 119 112 112 114 118 127 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 130 132 133 131 118 105 95 95 99 105 113 114 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 10 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 71 61 57 55 50 41 44 39 33 31 33 32 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 8 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 29 19 22 16 -10 0 -36 -9 -20 -2 0 16 200 MB DIV 89 85 86 85 86 85 65 24 32 -9 -8 -14 -19 700-850 TADV 2 6 7 6 6 18 2 1 -14 0 -6 -2 -8 LAND (KM) 296 280 206 135 61 120 -67 -40 -53 -42 145 363 422 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.3 20.1 21.1 22.0 24.3 26.8 28.1 28.0 27.2 26.4 25.8 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 84.3 83.9 83.4 83.0 82.5 81.9 81.4 81.0 81.1 82.1 83.8 85.9 87.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 10 11 12 10 3 3 7 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 45 49 46 37 51 12 1 6 6 0 0 61 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -7. -18. -25. -30. -32. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -10. -13. -17. -18. -17. -18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 05/23/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942012 INVEST 05/23/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 05/23/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)