* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 10/22/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 44 45 46 47 47 50 54 51 47 40 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 44 45 46 47 47 50 54 51 47 40 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 44 45 47 50 54 59 64 66 64 59 Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 31 31 35 30 23 22 21 16 18 40 36 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -3 -5 -3 0 0 1 5 2 -7 -3 -12 SHEAR DIR 343 350 346 339 330 301 308 300 346 10 26 39 34 SST (C) 23.8 23.9 23.9 24.0 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.7 25.2 25.8 25.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 94 95 94 95 94 94 97 99 102 106 112 111 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 81 80 80 80 79 82 85 88 93 98 97 97 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -56.5 -57.0 -57.4 -57.9 -58.6 -58.9 -58.6 -58.4 -57.2 -56.2 -55.9 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 51 51 52 52 51 46 41 37 30 25 26 27 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 18 17 15 13 12 11 12 13 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 164 170 156 144 131 101 84 82 81 73 59 45 31 200 MB DIV 5 -19 -12 2 -8 -39 -17 -20 -41 -53 -27 -16 -24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -3 -3 0 -2 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1632 1692 1752 1786 1819 1858 1849 1788 1692 1551 1348 1153 1103 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 33.7 33.9 33.9 33.9 33.8 33.4 32.4 31.0 29.6 28.2 27.0 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 29.0 29.6 30.2 30.6 31.0 31.5 31.6 31.4 31.0 30.1 28.5 26.9 26.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 2 4 6 7 9 10 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. -10. -14. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 29. 29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -10. -12. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 10. 14. 11. 7. 0. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 10/22/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 10/22/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)